For World Population Day, a look at the countries with the biggest projected gains – and losses – by 2100 (2024)
Four of the 10 most populous countries in the world will no longer be among the top 10 in 2100 – and all four will be supplanted by rapidly growing nations in Africa, according to recently released population projections from the United Nations.
Brazil, Bangladesh, Russia and Mexico are among the world’s 10 most populous countries today. By 2100, they are projected to be overtaken by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Egypt – none of which are currently in the top 10.
This changing of the guard is expected to occur because of sluggish population growth over the next eight decades in Mexico (+10% by 2100) and population losses in Brazil (-15%), Bangladesh (-8%) and Russia (-14%). Each of the four African countries, by contrast, is expected to more than double in population, with increases of 304% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 156% in Ethiopia, 378% in Tanzania and 120% in Egypt.
Here’s how the list of the 10 most populous countries in the world has changed since 1950 – and how it is projected to change again by 2100:
Africa’s rapid population growth is one of the dominant stories to emerge from the UN’s projections. Of the six countries that are projected to account for more than half of all world population growth by 2100, five are in Africa, as a previous Pew Research Center analysis noted. Half the world’s babies will be born in Africa by 2100, up from three-in-ten today.
Another way to think about Africa’s population boom is to look at the 10 countries – out of more than 200 jurisdictions in the UN data – that will experience the biggest gains and losses in people by 2100, both in absolute numbers and in percentage terms.
Eight of the 10 countries that are expected to gain the most people by 2100 are in Africa: Nigeria (with the largest gain, 527 million), the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Angola, Niger, Egypt and Sudan. (This recent animation of the UN data shows African nations’ long-term rise up the population ranks.) The two non-African nations on this list are Pakistan and the United States, which are projected to see population gains of 182 million and 103 million people, respectively.
At the other end of the spectrum, none of the 10 countries that are expected to see the biggest population losses by 2100 are in Africa. Instead, these countries tend to be in Asia and Europe, with the largest decrease by far projected in China. By 2100, China is expected to have 374 million fewer people than it does today; China’s projected decline in people, in fact, is more than the entire current population of the United States. India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2027.
On a percentage basis, all 10 countries that are projected to experience the biggest growth in population by 2100 are in Africa, led by Niger (581% increase), Angola (473%) and Tanzania (378%). The biggest percentage decreases in population are expected in Eastern European nations, led by Albania (-62%), Serbia (-52%), and Moldova and Bosnia-Herzegovina (both -50%).
For more on projected population changes in countries and regions around the world, read our recent analysis of the UN data.
John Gramlichis an associate director at Pew Research Center.
World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100. The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new United Nations report being launched today.
According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, India will become the most populated country in the world by 2050. The country surpassed China as the most populated country in April 2023, and the projections say that its population will reach 1,659 million by 2050.
By 2050, after India and China, Nigeria is expected to become the world's third most populous nation, followed by the United States, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia and Bangladesh, in that order.
China's population began shrinking in 2022, and the latest United Nations report indicates that it could slip to 1.3 billion in 2050 and then plummet to only 770 million in 2100.
By 2100, the world's sea level is predicted to rise anywhere between one foot to 12 feet, putting billions of people at risk. Despite these dire warnings and well-founded fears, humans have always had a knack for adaptation. First is solving the biggest problem—pollution.
The U.N. estimates that the world population as a whole will peak around 2100 at 11 billion as the last developing countries develop. Then it will start going down. So if current trends continue around the world there would likely be 0 people left by the year 3000.
According to the IMF, Guyana is the world's fastest-growing economy in terms of real GDP since 2018, boasting an impressive five-year average economic growth rate of 27.14%, including an astounding 62.3% growth in 2023.
Long-range predictions to 2150 range from a population decline to 3.2 billion in the 'low scenario', to 'high scenarios' of 24.8 billion. One scenario predicts a massive increase to 256 billion by 2150, assuming fertility remains at 1995 levels.
China currently holds the number one spot on this list. But the population of India is expected to surpass that of China's by later this year, eventually reaching a total of 1.67 billion in 2050.
The nine countries expected to show the biggest increase are India, Nigeria and Pakistan, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States of America. In all, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to practically double by 2050.
By 2100, the global population could surpass 11 billion, according to predictions by the UN. Currently China, India and the USA have the three largest populations in the world, but by 2100, this will have changed to India, Nigeria and China, respectively.
A meta-analysis of 70 studies estimates the sustainable limit to the world population to 7.7 billion people. World population as of 2020: 7.8 billion...
United Nations Population Division Projection: The United Nations (UN) projects that the world population will peak around 2100 at approximately 11 billion and then start to decline [1]. If current trends continue, it is suggested that there may be no people left by the year 3000 [1].
Extending the UN's probabilistic population models, the paper, published in the International Journal of Forecasting, found that our population size in 2300 will likely be between 2 and 26 billion people, with a median projection of 7.5 billion.
By 2100, the United States will be home to 366 million people, according to Census Bureau projections. That's 32 million more people than in 2022, but it also indicates a slight decline from a projected peak down the road.
Introduction: My name is Van Hayes, I am a thankful, friendly, smiling, calm, powerful, fine, enthusiastic person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.
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