Recession Rules: Do's And Don'ts (2024)

Just the word "recession" triggers the fear response. But moving from fear to action can help investors ride out economic uncertainty.

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Technically we're not in a recession. Still, stock markets are correcting, and economic uncertainty is rising.

It's time to get tough with your finances. Then you can ride any economic waves, cutting back when prudent and dropping in on opportunities if conditions improve.

Expert financial planners are helping clients manage the possible coming storm with "dos and "don'ts" to build financial fortitude.

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Define Recession

Recessions, though painful, are part of the normal ebb and flow of the economy. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter that determines recessions, which are periods when gross domestic product (GDP) falls, unemployment rises and business activity (retail sales and manufacturing) falls off for an extended period of time.

April 2020 marked the end of the last U.S. recession, a two-month decline due to shutdowns related to the Covid pandemic. The previous U.S. recession, dubbed The Great Recession, occurred when the housing bubble burst in 2007. It was a significant downturn, which U.S. officials say lasted from December 2007 to June 2009.

Recession Do's

Hold cash: It's always best to start with the positives. "Control the things you can control," said Martin Schamis, Janney Montgomery Scott's head of Wealth Planning in Philadelphia. Schamis and other experts say it's critical you have adequate emergency funds.

How much? Retirees should have enough cash to cover two years of expenses. If you're still working, perhaps a bit less. "Then you can absorb these kinds of pullbacks," said Joseph Eschleman, president of Towerpoint Wealth in Sacramento, Calif.

"Cash adds 'Bubble Wrap' to your portfolio," he said. And having cash handy is vital during a recession in case of a job loss or other reduction in income. And as rates rise your cash will earn more money in a savings account.

Recession Rules: Do's And Don'ts (1)

Reduce debt: If you have high-interest debt, pay it down if you can. But don't tap your emergency fund. "Pay off a 5% loan and that's a 5% gain for you," said Schamis.

Ironically, also consider setting up more credit.

"If you don't have a home equity line of credit you might want to go get one," said Anthony Watson, founder and president of Thrive Retirement Specialists in Dearborn, Mich. A job loss may make it impossible to get a home loan. "With a line of credit, you don't pay for it unless you use it," he said.

Keep investing: This "do" is confusing. As we've all been schooled, you can't time the markets. No one knows when they'll rebound. Still, you'll want to keep contributing to your retirement fund, as well as be ready for any upturn.

A good way to do that is emphasizing top-quality, diversified index funds. Watson calls it "owning everything."

"I like to use Vanguard Total Market Index Fund ETF (VTI), he said. In a down period, "some boats will go under, but (in a diversified fund) if I lose a couple of boats I don't really feel it."

Rebalance: Eschleman suggests taking a hard look at your portfolio. Rebalance to diversify.

"Commodities, precious metals, timber, commercial real estate, are less affected by market volatility," he said. Investing in foreign funds and currencies may be another good hedge.

What about bonds? Low interest rates have made bonds unattractive for the past few years. But as the Federal Reserve raises rates, it may soon be time to reconsider high-quality bonds. "Bonds aren't meant to be a growth portion of your portfolio," said Schamis. "They're meant to be a shock absorber."

Don'ts

Don't let emotions run wild: "As humans, we're hard-wired to be emotional," said Eschleman. "But you can't let emotions dictate financial decisions."

Still, keep tabs on your portfolio. "Don't check it every day, but don't be completely ignorant," he said.

Don't panic sell. Selling the wrong asset at the wrong time, just to generate cash, may haunt you later. "A lot of high-quality, blue chip stocks and funds are down, but that doesn't mean you should punt them," said Eschleman.

Don't buy costly durable items: Restrain yourself. "Put off purchasing any big-ticket items," said Watson. Also, track your spending and perhaps trim some expenses.

It's foolish to spend now with high prices and inflation. "You could get those items cheaper when the economy does goes into recession," said Watson.

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Recession Rules: Do's And Don'ts (2024)

FAQs

What should you not do during a recession? ›

Avoid becoming a co-signer on a loan, taking out an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), or taking on new debt. Don't quit your job if you aren't prepared for a long search for a new one. If you own your own business, consider postponing spending on capital improvements and taking on new debt until the recovery has begun.

Should I take my money out of the bank before a recession? ›

Your money is safe in a bank, even during an economic decline like a recession. Up to $250,000 per depositor, per account ownership category, is protected by the FDIC or NCUA at a federally insured financial institution.

Should you hold cash in a recession? ›

Finance Experts All Say the Same Thing

They all said the same thing: You need three to six months' worth of living expenses in an easily accessible savings account. The exact amount of cash needed depends on one's income tier and cost of living.

Should I keep my money in a savings account during the recession? ›

The Bottom Line

If you're wondering where to put your money in a recession, consider a high-yield savings account, money market account, CD or bonds. They can provide safe places to store some of your savings. It's worth noting that a recession doesn't mean you should pull all your money out of the stock market.

What becomes cheap in a recession? ›

Because a decline in disposable income affects prices, the prices of essentials, such as food and utilities, often stay the same. In contrast, things considered to be wants instead of needs, such as travel and entertainment, may be more likely to get cheaper.

What are the safest assets during a recession? ›

Cash and Cash Equivalents

Cash equivalents include short-term, highly liquid assets with minimal risk, such as Treasury bills, money market funds and certificates of deposit. Money market funds and high-yield savings are also places to salt away cash in a downturn.

Where is the safest place to put money in a recession? ›

Saving Accounts

Like checking accounts, they're federally insured and are generally the simplest and safest place to keep cash in good times and bad. Other advantages of savings accounts include: Simple to open and maintain. Deposits are fully insured.

Should I withdraw all my money during a recession? ›

Keep earning money

This may seem obvious, but it's best to avoid withdrawing large amounts from your portfolio during a recession. When stock values have declined, selling shares to cover everyday living expenses can meaningfully eat into your portfolio's long-term growth potential.

How to prepare for a recession food? ›

Shelf stable foods are foods that don't need to be refrigerated or frozen to stay fresh. These are things like canned goods, dried fruits, nuts, and jerky. They're great to have on hand because they last a long time, so you can always have something to eat even in an emergency or unexpected situation.

Why is cash king during a recession? ›

The phrase means that having liquid funds available can be vital because of the flexibility it provides during a crisis. While cash investments -- such as a money market fund, savings account, or bank CD -- don't often yield much, having cash on hand can be invaluable in times of financial uncertainty.

How to profit from a recession? ›

What businesses are profitable in a recession? Many investors turn to stocks in companies that sell consumer staples like health care, food and beverages, and personal hygiene products. These businesses typically remain profitable during recessions and their share prices tend to better resist stock market sell-offs.

How to ride out a recession? ›

The Bottom Line

Build up your emergency fund, pay off your high-interest debt, do what you can to live within your means, diversify your investments, invest for the long term, be honest with yourself about your risk tolerance, and keep an eye on your credit score.

What not to do during a recession? ›

Don't: Take On High-Interest Debt

It's best to avoid racking up high-interest debt during a recession. In fact, the smart move is to slash high-interest debt so you've got more cash on hand. Chances are your highest-interest debt is credit card debt.

Are CDs good in a recession? ›

During the Great Recession and its aftermath, the stock market went through turbulent shifts, resulting in great losses for some stockholders. CDs are one option that can help protect your investment from times of turmoil by providing a stable income.

Can you lose your money in the bank during a recession? ›

About Recessions and Ensuring Deposit Insurance

If the United States were to enter a recession, the funds you have saved at a bank aren't at risk of becoming lost or inaccessible the same way they were during the Great Depression.

How do you lose money in a recession? ›

Lower interest rates, stock market volatility, and potential job loss can drain your savings. Diversifying your investments, building an emergency fund, and opening a high-yield savings account can help protect your savings.

What typically goes down during a recession? ›

At the peak of the business cycle, the economy is healthy and growing; stock prices for companies often reach all-time highs. During the recession phase of the business cycle, income and employment decline; stock prices fall as companies struggle to sustain profitability.

Is cash worth more in a recession? ›

Cash delivers safety in troubled times. Experts recommend keeping three to six months' worth of cash to cover living expenses when people lose their jobs. For businesses, maintaining liquidity through a recession can making the difference between shutting the doors or surviving the downturn.

What are the worst investments during a recession? ›

Equity Sectors

On the negative side, energy and infrastructure stocks have been the hardest-hit in recent recessions. Companies in these sectors are acutely sensitive to swings in demand. Financials stocks also can suffer during recessions because of a rising default rate and shrinking net interest margins.

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